🐈 Schrodinger's TVL: Until You Hack It, It's Not Real
Paul Razvan Berg
ETHCluj - June 27, 2025
Paul's Background
- 👨💻 Ethereum developer for 6+ years
- ⏳ Co-founder and CEO at Sablier
- 🐦 Exporting my brain on X/Twitter @PaulRBerg
📈 Classic TVL: The Ultimate Vanity Metric
- 💸 Price × Token Count = Magic Number
- 🎭 Makes protocols look bigger than they are
- 🤡 $100M TVL for $10M market cap? Seems legit!
- 📊 DAO treasuries and vested tokens = inflated
🔎 Example: Sablier TVL Analysis
Data for contract 0xCD18...8888 in Oct 2023
- TVL: $51.8M (Price × Token Count)
- Stablecoins and ETH: $3.4M
- The Problem: $48.4M of vesting tokens
Are vesting tokens worthless? 🤔
💡 Solution: Total Obtainable Value (TOV)
- 🔓 What if a hacker stole all funds?
- 💱 How much USDC/ETH could they actually get?
- 🔍 Query DEX aggregators (like 1inch)
- 📊 Real liquidation value > fantasy numbers
TOV = value obtainable through post-hack swaps
💭 Thought Experiment: Sablier Gets REKT
- 🔓 Drain all vesting tokens
- 💱 Swap them for USDC/ETH
- 🏃♂️ Run to non-extradition country
- 🏖️ Retire on a beach
Question: Are those tokens (FOX, ICHI) worth $0?
No, they're worth whatever the hacker can get!
The End, Thank You 🙏
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